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11/16/2010

DIW study

experts demystify myth of the skills shortage

By Michael Kröger

ddp

assembly of a large diesel engine at MAN: salaries of skilled workers rose only an average

German industry has been complaining for years about the lack of skilled workers and supposedly dire consequences for the economy. Researchers have looked at the popular hypothesis exact - and have come to a clear conclusion: it is wrong.

Berlin - The accounts of German industry for years is this: Because engineers and computer experts are missing, export the Federal Republic of less than possible. And the company shall accordingly be less easily qualified workers. Therefore at risk of shortages of skilled workers not only the current recovery, but also long-term economic development.

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as memorable this common statement is: It is wrong to say the labor market expert at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). In its weekly report that will be published on Tuesday to put the researchers deal with the complaints of the employers' associations , which is primarily Surveys are based in the company. Then there are more than 60,000 mathematicians, computer scientists, engineers and scientists.

All this was amazing because of the economic slump had the industry in 2009 "very hard" and taken "to the job cuts is just come to a halt," writes DIW expert Karl Brenke. Last August, the number of employees in the industry of 300,000 was below the level before the crisis.

The surveys of employers, where the shortage of skilled workers would have found, since only a limited value. They reflected all if the short-term problems of each respondent writes, Brenke. Other factors, however, were the clear Conclusion that from a fundamental lack of skilled workers could be no question.

salaries do not rise

A look at the evolution of salaries shows that there can be no acute problem. Professionals should not have been the wage rate better than the other workers, which show the official survey of workers earnings. "Take the case of capital goods manufacturers had to executives in the second quarter real wages," writes Brenke. In contrast, scarcity there should be an above average increase in salary. leads

As further evidence against the thesis of the skills shortage Brenke the labor market statistics. Accordingly, in March were in almost all manufacturing jobs and fewer people employed than in the previous month. The current development confirms the trend: With the boom while it was true again fewer unemployed, but in almost all professions have a lot more than before the crisis - and their number is almost everywhere greater than the number of vacancies.

Real shortage only to doctors

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And the future? Also good, Brenke is with reference to the high number of engineering students. Specifically, the mechanical engineer sei inzwischen nach Betriebswirtschaft das beliebteste Fach. Pro Jahr werden nach der Schätzung des Experten allenfalls rund 9000 Jobs im Maschinenbau frei, weil ältere Arbeitnehmer in den Ruhestand gingen. Demgegenüber machten allein im Wintersemester 2009/2010 mehr als 23.000 Studenten erfolgreich ihr Examen.

Damit wäre also nicht nur der Ersatzbedarf gedeckt gewesen - sondern es hätten zusätzlich acht Prozent mehr Ingenieure eingestellt werden können, rechnet Brenke vor. Anzeichen für einen solchen Beschäftigungsaufbau gebe es aber nicht.

Auch die betriebliche Ausbildung lasse keinen Rückschluss auf einen Fachkräftemangel erkennen. Für die 53.000 angebotenen Lehrstellen fänden sich nur in einigen Dienstleistungsberufen - bei Klempnern oder Bäckern - nicht genug Bewerber.